A More European Poland
In a world inflamed by wars, amidst successive, more or less democratic elections, Poland is changing its course in international relations.
Małgorzata Molęda-Zdziech is a respected sociologist and political scientist, a lecturer at the Warsaw School of Economics, and the head of the Department of Political Studies at the Institute of International Studies. She is also the EU cooperation delegate to the Rector. A member of the Polish Sociological Association, Polish Political Science Association; an expert in the European Commission’s Team Europe Direct Poland network. Author and co-author of numerous publications on lobbying, communication, and media. She has published, among others, “The Time of Celebrities. Mediatization of Public Life,” Difin, 2013, and with J. Misiun and S. Łubiarz, “American Elections in the Post-Truth Era,” SGH Publishing House, 2018. Decorated with the French Order of Academic Palms (Chevalier des Palmes Académiques).
The last time we talked about politics was two days before the last elections in Poland. What has changed since then?
“Since the elections in October 2023, or rather since the formation of the Donald Tusk government, that is, since December 13, 2023, the process of change in Poland that has been underway for some time has accelerated. On the one hand, there has been a transfer of power to the Civic Coalition, and on the other hand, much has happened on the international stage, which also affects the policy of this government. One of such events is the ongoing war in Ukraine, a prolonged conflict that has serious repercussions on the European and international stage. Secondly, we have the year 2024, the so-called ‘year of elections worldwide,’ because probably for the first time in the world, over 2 billion people in approximately 70 countries, more than half of the countries, will vote in the same year, and these are numbers that can bring about a change in the global political order. In recent days, elections have been held in Russia, in June – in the EU member states for the European Parliament, and in November, elections will be held in the USA. The result in Russia was predetermined, and Putin became the longest-serving leader of Russia, after previously eliminating the opposition, as evidenced by Navalny’s death. In the fall in the USA, Trump could win, which will ultimately lead to the detachment of the most important country in the world from democratic values, which in turn will lead to further changes in the world order. And then there is Europe, where votes will be cast between June 6 and 9, and so far it seems that democratic parties may prevail in the European Parliament. However, there are also many important countries, such as France, where the victory of right-wing parties is likely. In short, we have a complex international framework, which, after Putin’s predictable victory in the elections, heralds further escalation of the war in Ukraine, which, I emphasize, is not Russia’s only strategic goal.”
Between the recurring Biden-Trump showdown and European uncertainty, one might get the impression that we are living in an era lacking political figures capable of envisioning global development.
“In the United States, after four years, a troubling rematch is underway, while in Europe, there’s a lack of strong leadership after Angela Merkel’s departure. Olaf Scholz doesn’t seem to possess the personality or charisma to become the leader of all Europe in these challenging years. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron is attempting to be Europe’s leader, but he’s too entangled in domestic issues in France. Macron’s ratings are the lowest among all French prime ministers, so Europe is almost a tool for him to regain support in France. Certainly, we don’t have politicians on par with those from the end of the last century.”
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, instabilities in Asia, the reactivation of conflict in Palestine – on our planet, there are about fifty different small wars ongoing, something that hasn’t happened since 1945. Can we speak of a third world war? Or how can we define this situation?
“We’ve experienced such a situation before and called it the ‘cold war.’ The tension that existed between Russia and the West during the cold war is resurfacing, while the dispute between China and Taiwan is escalating rapidly – a conflict that could escalate – and almost every region of the world has serious conflicts. Why is this happening? We should go back to the beginnings of the EU, or rather the first community, the European Coal and Steel Community, which emerged as an idea of economic cooperation to avoid war. While this idea developed in Europe, we didn’t have a common defense policy, a common army, precisely because we sought to nurture the value of peace. We had the longest period without war until 2014 (Crimea) or 2020 (Ukraine). Initially, France didn’t want to recognize this war as a European conflict. It argued that it was an internal matter concerning countries considered neighbors of Europe. However, President Macron has now changed his mind and is considering the possibility of sending a European contingent to the front. However, most European countries are opposed to this. For example, Poland wants to support Ukraine with weapons and funds but doesn’t want to send troops to avoid escalating the conflict. Certainly, for Europe, this is the most challenging situation since the end of World War II.”
Opinions circulate regarding the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Putin says he will send troops to the border with Finland, while Pope Francis calls on Ukraine to start negotiations to end the war. What do you think will be the outcome of this war, and can Europe accept Ukraine losing part of its territory?
“At this point, we cannot entertain such a scenario. Poland rejects the vision of a defeated Ukraine, and Europe counts on its victory, which is why it continues to support it. The resistance of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of Hungary has also been overcome, so aid for Ukraine has been unanimously granted. Furthermore, the process of negotiations for Ukraine’s accession to the EU has begun, with the first stage achieved. We are talking about further EU expansion, which not only concerns Ukraine but also other Balkan European countries. Scenarios in which Russia is forced to withdraw from Ukraine are still very relevant. Diplomatic actions confirm this as well. The recent, rather rare, joint visit of President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk to Washington for a meeting with President Joe Biden demonstrates the coherence of foreign policy positions as well as security. Fortunately, there is full agreement on national security in Poland. The recent Weimar Triangle summit in Berlin between Scholz, Macron, and Tusk precisely concerns security issues and the coherence of European and Atlantic positions.”
However, the hypothesis that Ukraine will not be able to regain occupied territories remains current. How will Europe behave in such a case?
“It’s hard for me to think about such a scenario. In Poland, we remember well what it was like to live under Soviet influence, so even the thought of recreating such a situation in Ukraine fills me with deep sadness. I don’t want to think about it also because in sociology, we talk about self-fulfilling prophecies, so I believe it’s better not to talk about it. I do not accept such a scenario. If Europe does not take a firm stand against Russia at this point, the conflict will continue to escalate.”
Do you think Russia’s withdrawal from Crimea or Donbas is realistic?
“Unfortunately, Russia only understands the argument of force. I don’t think Putin has as much support as he thinks; he is weaker than he appears, and I don’t think he can face the entire Western world, which is why it’s so important for us to be united and resist him together because only a united front can make it difficult for Putin to win. We’ll see how far he will go. The death of opposition figure Navalny was another indication that Putin is an authoritarian and ruthless leader. The democratic world must set limits for him; otherwise, there will be a huge escalation of conflicts and the destruction of the world order.”
Meanwhile, on the international stage, China is becoming a decisive voice between the West and Russia.
“From China’s perspective, what matters is the economy. They are trying in every way to leverage the current geopolitical situation in the world. Russia, on the other hand, is using this situation to establish new contacts in Africa. Western embargoes on Russian products mean that they are directed to African countries, which are happy to accept them and start cooperation with Russia. Hungary is also an important player in this international game, with Prime Minister Orbán leading the support for Russia. I repeat, Putin can be defeated without support, but the lack of solidarity among democratic countries prolongs the conflict and makes the situation increasingly difficult.”
What role does Poland want to play in the future of Europe? In recent years, it has shown a strong focus on the Three Seas Initiative, which involves relations with the Balkans.
“Here, political and economic visions converge. Regarding the Three Seas Initiative, it was a vision that emerged during the rule of the Law and Justice Party (PiS), when Poland was isolated on the international stage and ceased cooperation within, for example, the Weimar Triangle. The PiS government sought alternatives on the international stage. The Visegrad Group turned out to be an alternative, but they were small allies, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, now divided, among other things, on the issue of Ukraine (Slovakia stands with Orban, Poland with the Czech Republic). With a change in government, the format of cooperation within the Three Seas Initiative is losing its significance. The new government is returning to cooperation within historical and most important allies. Poland wants to return to the so-called first group of European countries and has conditions for this: location, size, population, and a prime minister with experience in governing in Europe. We are also preparing for the presidency of the Council of the EU, when Poland will have a significant influence on shaping the agenda of EU affairs.
As for relations with Europe and the USA, Poland certainly has a pro-European orientation, but at the same time, it has historical ties with the USA. Poland has always been torn between these two directions. The visit of the president and the prime minister to the USA took place on the 25th anniversary of Poland’s accession to NATO, a date that unites all Poles. According to the surveys conducted by the Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS), 90% of Polish respondents support Poland’s accession to the North Atlantic Alliance (the highest, 94% support was in 2023, after Russia started the war in Ukraine). Security is the most important thing for Poles. Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which speaks of the Alliance’s response in case of an attack on one of the member countries, gives citizens a sense of security: on the one hand, we are in the EU, focusing on political and economic relations, and on the other hand, we have real protection within NATO.”
Do you think Washington is closer to Poles than Brussels?
“If we look at the value systems of Poles, we can conclude that Poles (oriented towards family and career) are closer to the USA than the EU. Historical factors also come into play. The first waves of Polish emigration in search of work headed overseas. The Polish diaspora in the USA is strong, many Poles still maintain close family ties with relatives in the USA. The Polish community is also a significant force during elections in the States. Presidential candidates always try to gain the votes of Poles living abroad. However, generational issues should also be taken into account. The bonds between Americans and Poles are stronger in older generations, while young Poles are much more connected to Europe. For example, a terrible mistake of the old government led by PiS was an attempt to renew the stereotype of the ‘bad German.’ The Polish public ‘didn’t buy it’ because Poles were aware of the economic significance of Germany for our country. Returning to this negative rhetoric was impossible for Poles, and the only ones who fell for it were representatives of the older generation, to whom information comes only from television and who do not have direct contact with other European countries. Especially in the older generation, there is a sense of closeness to the United States, a country that expresses similar values and ideas of authoritarian power. I believe that voters of right-wing parties in Poland view Trump favorably as a candidate for the President of the United States because he is a model of power and embodiment of a leader: a strong leader using tough, nationalist language. These are models of power that fascinate a certain electorate.”
The international atmosphere is difficult and worsens due to the crisis of perspectives, for example, in the 1980s, the direction was clear: to stop military development and build a united Europe. Now, 40 years later, we find ourselves in a completely different geopolitical situation. What can we expect in the future?
I think we should reconsider the concept of the nation-state. We should contemplate what a modern state should look like in times when citizens move between countries and have contact with the whole world even from home through social media, yet can benefit from what the state offers without participating in elections. Almost half of the states are no longer democratic, and we often add adjectives to define these pseudo-democracies, such as illiberal democracy, electoral democracy. Elections are, of course, a symbol of democracy, yet even in Russia, there are elections, and everyone knows that they are neither fair nor equal – hence, they are unreliable. Furthermore, new technologies are often used as a means of political manipulation or corruption. Technology is advancing faster than its regulations, which is very concerning. For example, in the current campaign for the European Parliament, there is talk of regulating the use of artificial intelligence and TikTok, but at the same time, the use of TikTok for campaigning before the European Parliament elections is allowed! This shows inconsistency. We know that new technologies are used to create deepfakes, false images or voices to manipulate public opinion. We are witnessing a technological revolution over which we have no control. Thus, while on the one hand, TikTok is under scrutiny by the EU regarding potential violations of the Digital Services Act (DSA), on the other hand – during the EP campaign, the use of TikTok is allowed to reach young people and persuade them to vote.”
In summary, are we politically and socially moving in the fog of private interests and macroeconomic benefits without any vision for the future?
“I don’t want to end our conversation on such a negative note, saying that there is no vision for the future. I think the war has worsened international relations and made politics as hard power (based on strength and violence) relevant again, moving us away from the concept of soft power, where a country’s power of attraction is determined by culture, science, and social issues. We need to rethink the concept of growth, promote sustainable consumption. The generation of our children is already seriously considering climate issues, but they also need mental well-being. This generation does not want to work like their parents; they want more free time and a balance between professional and personal life. If we want to develop as a society, we need to think differently about progress, where it’s not just about numbers and GDP growth, regardless of the costs and environmental devastation, but also about choices and sacrifices, about seeking different consumption patterns, understanding how expensive our lifestyle is and how much the next generation will pay for it.”
As a closing reflection on Poland: could a change of government herald a reopening of discussions about joining the eurozone?
“It is currently a topic that is not discussed, although many experts call for reflection on the possibility of adopting the euro. However, the war on the other side of our border currently monopolizes all discussions about political-economic prospects, so as long as the conflict in Ukraine continues, it will be the only real element of political discussion.”