Chinese Maneuvers on the International Stage
You don’t have to be a fan of Donald Trump to appreciate a certain aspect of his approach – the art of deal-making. In the Chinese context, you could call it the “art of making money without annoying your partner.” I must admit that the Chinese have been quite successful in their relations with Russia so far. They know the recipe for success: flattery, playing on Russian ambitions as a superpower, fueling anti-American sentiments, while maintaining restraint and self-control. But as Russia weakens, the temptation for the Chinese grows.
The most important trip since the invasion of Ukraine
Vladimir Putin’s visit to China was like “the most important trip since the invasion of Ukraine.” He fired up the diplomatic engine that seemed long dormant when he appeared as an honorary guest at the Belt and Road Forum. But the price he paid was a contemporary version of “kou tou” – that is, flattery.
The New Silk Road – or another edition of the same concept
The New Silk Road is the third summit in Poland referred to as the “New Silk Road,” announced ten years ago in Astana. This initiative aimed to build a global infrastructure network focused on the South, primarily benefiting China.
For many countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, this initiative is a boon. They prefer to develop at the cost of dependence on China rather than not develop at all. Importantly, unlike Western partners, the Chinese do not raise sensitive human rights issues.
The idea of Chinese “mini-globalization” is neatly packaged in the propaganda associated with the Belt and Road Initiative, suggesting Oriental wealth and expanding nearly every Chinese idea as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, regardless of whether it concerns Chile, the Arctic, cybernetics, space, or something earlier, like the Pakistani port of Gwadar.
Blurring the line between policy and the initiative
At some point, the line between Chinese foreign policy and the all-encompassing Belt and Road Initiative began to blur. The pace of “Silk Roadification” of Chinese policy increased in parallel with the strengthening of Xi Jinping’s power.
Excuse me, New Silk Road
Russia was initially very skeptical of the idea announced by Xi Jinping in Astana, right in the heart of its sphere of influence. It’s worth noting that initially, Russia tried to block Chinese influence, but then had to let it go because it couldn’t afford to have conflicts with both the West and China, especially after the aggression in Ukraine in 2014.
The convergence of Russia and China
Russia eventually had to choose between confrontation with the West and compromise with China. Russia made amends with the New Silk Road. As a result, Central Asia has become a sort of Russo-Chinese political and economic condominium.
Putin at the Belt and Road Summits
Putin appeared at the previous two Belt and Road Summits in 2017 and 2019 in Beijing. On each occasion, he played his tricks – arriving late for the official inauguration, playing the piano for journalists while waiting to meet Xi Jinping. In his speeches, he exaggerated Russia’s significance for the Belt and Road Initiative, presenting it as an indispensable participant on his own terms.
The Chinese tolerated this with almost imperial tolerance, knowing that it’s better to tolerate Russia’s capriciousness than to engage in open confrontation.
Fading into the background
Unfortunately for the Belt and Road Initiative, the current international political climate is becoming increasingly unfavorable. By the way, the enthusiasts of this initiative, who hung onto the idea of “reversing the effects of geographic discoveries” through the New Silk Road a decade ago, are now as interested in it as non-English (or non-Chinese) speakers.
The People’s Republic of China has also somewhat cooled the Belt and Road Initiative. It hasn’t abandoned it completely – it’s not the Chinese way. They’ve just shifted the focus to other actions, such as Xi Jinping’s “Global Security Initiative.” The Belt and Road Program has been downsized or rationalized, focusing on specific regions and presenting the initiative as environmentally friendly.
Russia as “the northern half”
Through its invasion of Ukraine, Russia fell into its global semi-isolation. Initially, China cheered on Russia’s invasion, seeing it as a potential weakening of the Western international order. But Putin faltered, getting stuck on the Ukrainian steppes while uniting the West against him, thus giving a breath of life to the global leadership of the United States.
For Xi Jinping and his team, the most significant challenge is competition with the United States. Russia offers the People’s Republic of China “the northern half” – peace in the north and stable supplies of cheap energy, away from the U.S. Navy. Moreover, Russia is a partner in attempts to change the current international order.
China couldn’t imagine a better Russia. Moscow finds itself in a situation where its previous ties with the West have been frozen. Now, there’s nothing on the horizon other than the East and the “global majority,” as Dmitri Trenin put it, who used to play the role of an independent analyst but now works entirely in the Kremlin’s interest.
Realistically, Russia not only wants but must rely on China. For Beijing, any change in this situation, like the overthrow or death of Putin, could pose potential difficulties. Therefore, it benefits China to maintain goodwill towards Russia.
Giving face
At the Belt and Road Summit, the Russian leader was welcomed with a red carpet, despite having controversies on his record with the International Criminal Court in The Hague. For China, this is a gesture of “giving face,” which doesn’t cost them much but brings gratitude from the Russian leader.
This gives Putin a significant dose of legitimacy. Thanks to the Chinese, he can present himself as a leader received with honors, rather than as someone isolated in a bunker. In return, Putin must publicly praise Xi and the Belt and Road Initiative, which he tried to hamper a decade ago.
No dotting the “i”
Although China officially presents itself concerning the Russia-Ukraine war as “for, and even against,” in reality, they support Russia by providing money for the war through massive purchases of raw materials and exporting dual-use parts.
But they do this without dotting the “i.” Openly supporting Moscow would limit China’s flexibility, so it’s better to leave some appearances. This allows Western countries to influence China’s assistance to Russia. While China is helping Russia, it doesn’t want to bear the costs of Russian mistakes or pay for them. De jure, China abides by sanctions, but de facto, they’ve found a loophole in the system or simply bypass them.
Asymmetry of mutual benefits
The Chinese have set their relationship with Russia based on “gong yin,” where both sides benefit. But that doesn’t mean these benefits are equal. How much you gain depends on your strength, position, and negotiation skills. Even before the Ukraine war, the proportions in the Chinese-Russian arrangement were more 30/70 than 50/50. And now, Russia is growing weaker.
The art of deal-making, the Chinese way
So, paraphrasing a great American intellectual, the “art of deal-making, the Chinese way” is about making money without annoying your partner. And for now, the Chinese have been successful in their relations with Russia, thanks to a mix of flattery, manipulation of Russian superpower ambitions, fueling anti-American sentiments, restraint, and self-control.
They could be more ruthless toward Russia, but for now, they stick to certain limits. But as Russia weakens, the temptation for the Chinese undoubtedly grows. However, what holds China back is that the West would be the main beneficiary of such actions. So, at least for now, it pays to be kind to Russia.
So, in addition to everything, Putin can now quote Xi Jinping: “Deal with it!”
Krzysztof Bielejewski PhD MBA
Senior Partner w KB Konsulting i Partnerzy Sp. z o.o.